# Quarterly Theory A Smart Money Concepts / ICT concept (Time components (→ time-seasonality)) in the LuxAlgo Library, with 1 indicator implementation. ## What is Quarterly Theory? Quarterly Theory divides every trading cycle into four quarters and gives each a role. In New York time the day splits into four six-hour quarters: Asia (6:00 pm–12:00 am), London (12:00–6:00 am), New York (6:00 am–12:00 pm) and the afternoon (12:00–6:00 pm); each session subdivides into four 90-minute quarters, and the same grid extends up to the week, month and year. Each cycle is expected to unfold as [accumulation, manipulation, distribution](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/accumulation-manipulation-distribution/), then continuation or reversal: AMDX, or the shifted ordering XAMD when delivery front-runs the cycle. The framework is most closely associated with the trader known as Daye, who assembled it in the early 2020s from the time-based teachings of the Inner Circle Trader (ICT), whose material supplies the ingredients, from [killzones](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/killzones/) to the midnight open and other [ICT time anchors](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/ict-time-anchors/). What Quarterly Theory adds to its sources is recursion: the same four-phase template applied at every scale, from the year down to the 90-minute quarters and below. The working reference is each cycle's 'true open': the open of its second quarter rather than the calendar open, midnight New York in the daily case. Analogous anchors are cited for the larger cycles, Monday evening for the week, the first Monday of April for the year, though sources differ on the exact list. Q1 defines a range, manipulation is anticipated around the true open, and the real delivery is expected after it. Practitioners also read price against the true open as premium or discount, so the level doubles as a bias line. The appeal is an expected ordering for familiar events: a [liquidity sweep](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/liquidity-sweep/) through a prior low is no longer just a sweep, it is anticipated at a particular quarter of a particular session. The framework extends killzone-style session logic into a self-similar grid, its details are contested across sources, and the grid has no independent statistical validation, so treat it as a discretionary map of how delivery often unfolds, not a timetable the market must keep. ## How to identify the quarters on a chart The grid is fixed New York clock times, so identification is mostly careful session marking. 1. Set the chart's timezone to New York; every boundary is defined there, and exchange-local or UTC charts misplace the quarters. 2. Divide the day at 6:00 pm, 12:00 am, 6:00 am and 12:00 pm, then split any session of interest into its four 90-minute quarters. 3. Mark the true open, midnight for the daily cycle, and label Q1's high and low; manipulation is expected to run one side of that range near the true open before the directional leg. 4. Watch Q2 and Q3 for the sweep-and-reverse: a raid through Q1's range or [session liquidity](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/session-liquidity/) that fails and closes back inside is the manipulation signature. ## How traders use it - To time entries inside a session: if a session's first 90-minute quarter builds a range and the second runs one side of it (a Judas swing in session terms), the trader looks for the distribution leg in the opposite direction during the third quarter, positioning with the anticipated phase instead of chasing the run. - To frame bias across scales: the quarter of the year or month colors the expectation for the week, and the weekly quarter colors the day, so the working question before any intraday signal is 'which quarter am I in, and what phase should this be?' - To spot manipulation at true opens: a raid through a cycle's true open that fails and closes back through it is read as the manipulation leg completing, and becomes the trigger to position for the distribution that should follow. - To refine entries: once the manipulation leg is identified, traders drop to a lower timeframe for a [fair value gap](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/fair-value-gap/), an [order block](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/bullish-bearish-order-block/) or an [optimal trade entry](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/optimal-trade-entry/) retracement in the distribution direction. - To project targets: some practitioners extend [standard-deviation projections](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/standard-deviation-projections/) of the manipulation leg as objectives for the distribution quarter. ## Quarterly Theory vs neighboring ICT concepts - **ICT Time Anchors** (https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/ict-time-anchors/): Time anchors are individual clock references: the midnight open, session opens, news times. Quarterly Theory strings them into a cycle grammar, assigning each interval a phase role rather than treating anchors as isolated points. - **ICT Session Ranges** (https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/ict-session-ranges/): Session-range analysis treats each session's high, low and behavior as one unit. Quarterly Theory subdivides the same sessions into quarters with distinct jobs, a London range becoming four 90-minute phases rather than one block. - **Accumulation-manipulation-distribution** (https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/accumulation-manipulation-distribution/): AMD describes the phase sequence itself; Quarterly Theory is one scheme for when each phase should occur, pinning AMD onto fixed clock quarters at every scale and appending an X phase for continuation or reversal. ## FAQ ### What are the four quarters of the trading day in Quarterly Theory? In New York time: Q1 is Asia (6:00 pm–12:00 am), Q2 is London (12:00–6:00 am), Q3 is New York (6:00 am–12:00 pm) and Q4 is the afternoon (12:00–6:00 pm). Each six-hour quarter divides again into four 90-minute quarters, and the same four-part split is applied to weeks, months and the year. ### Is Quarterly Theory the same as ICT killzones? No. Killzones are fixed windows of expected high participation; Quarterly Theory is a complete partition of time into nested four-quarter cycles with a phase expectation for each quarter. They overlap (the London and New York killzones sit inside Q2 and Q3), and many traders run both, using quarters for narrative and killzones for execution timing. ### Who created Quarterly Theory? It is most commonly credited to the trader known as Daye, who organized it from time-based components of ICT's teaching in the early 2020s. There is no formal publication; the framework circulates through videos, mentorship notes and indicator write-ups, so finer details vary by presenter. ### What is a true open? The open of a cycle's second quarter, used instead of the calendar open as the reference price; the daily true open is midnight New York. Q1's action is treated as positioning, so measuring premium and discount from the second quarter's open filters early manipulation out of the reference. ### What is the difference between AMDX and XAMD? Ordering. AMDX is the default: accumulation in Q1, manipulation in Q2, distribution in Q3, then X, continuation or reversal, in Q4. XAMD is invoked when the cycle transposes and Q1 already delivers. Deciding between the two is contextual, a genuinely discretionary step and a fair criticism of the framework's testability. ### Does Quarterly Theory work on markets other than forex? The grid assumes the 24-hour forex and index-futures day. Crypto trades continuously, so it transfers mechanically; equities with a 6.5-hour cash session fit less cleanly, and practitioners adapt by applying quarters to futures sessions instead. Evidence in all cases is anecdotal. ## Implementations in the Library - Quarterly Theory (LuxAlgo): https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/quarterly-theory/ ## Related concepts - Killzones: https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/killzones/ - ICT Macros: https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/ict-macros/ - ICT Time Anchors: https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/ict-time-anchors/ - ICT Session Ranges: https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/ict-session-ranges/ --- Source: https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/quarterly-theory/ (LuxAlgo Library, the encyclopedia of trading & technical analysis). Free to use with attribution: https://www.luxalgo.com/library/license/