# Anchored Monte Carlo Shuffled Projection

Anchored Monte Carlo Shuffled Projection is an indicator on [Vela](https://vela.luxalgo.com/chart), our next-generation charting platform, written in Pine Script®.

Projects price paths forward from a chart anchor you place by shuffling the candle moves (close minus open) of the Lookback bars leading into it, running up to 1,000 randomized simulations from the anchor bar's close. An average line and standard-deviation values frame the projected range, giving traders a volatility-realistic map of where price could travel next.

- Indicator in the LuxAlgo Library, by LuxAlgo, published Jun 4, 2024.
- Access: free.
- Concepts: [Monte Carlo Price Paths](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/monte-carlo-price-paths/) (primary), [Resampling Tests](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/resampling-tests/)
- Open on Vela: https://vela.luxalgo.com/chart?pineScriptCodeId=cmpwn059i000bvhsgerjo013b
- Page: https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/anchored-monte-carlo-shuffled-projection/

**Anchored Monte Carlo Shuffled Projection** builds simulated futures from a point you choose: it takes the candle moves (close minus open) of the Lookback bars ending at the anchor, shuffles their order, and projects the cumulative paths forward from the anchor bar's close, up to 1,000 runs. The resulting fan of [Monte Carlo price paths](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/monte-carlo-price-paths/) frames where price could plausibly travel if the window's volatility persists.

## How to Trade the Anchored Monte Carlo Shuffled Projection?

- **Average Line**: the mean of all simulations; because shuffling preserves the window's net change, it extends at the slope of the current lookback, a continuation baseline.
- **Standard deviation values**: derived from the average deviation across vertical groups of simulation data and shown along the center line, they bound the projected range and can serve as forward support or resistance estimates.
- **Randomize Direction**: inverts every alternate change to strip the drift bias, producing a more balanced, range-style projection.

The anchor is set purely by time: click the chart to place it, then drag the vertical line whenever you want it moved. Since the projection [resamples](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/resampling-tests/) the market's own recorded changes rather than an assumed distribution, the ranges inherit real volatility.

## Anchored Monte Carlo Shuffled Projection Settings

- **Lookback**: how many bars feed the calculation window.
- **Simulation Count**: number of randomized runs, up to 1000.
- **Randomize Direction**: alternates the sign of changes for a more normalized outcome.
- **Visualize Simulations**: draws up to 99 of the computed paths in randomized colors.
- **Standard Deviation Multiplier**: distance of the deviation values from the center line.
- **Extend Lines**: projects the simulated value lines forward for reference.

## Frequently Asked Questions

### What exactly does the anchor control?

The anchor marks where the sampled window ends and where the projection starts, and it is determined solely by time. Every simulation is rebuilt from the Lookback bars leading into it, so moving the anchor reshapes the entire projection.

### How does it relate to the Monte Carlo Shuffled Projection?

Same shuffle-and-project engine, different sampling: this version pins the window to your chosen anchor, while the [Monte Carlo Shuffled Projection](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/monte-carlo-shuffled-projection/) runs without a manually placed anchor point. Anchoring is handy after regime-defining events.

### Is the Anchored Monte Carlo Shuffled Projection free?

Yes, free in the LuxAlgo Library. You can also fire it up inside Quant, our coding agent, right from this page and stress-test the projections yourself. You can also copy the source code from this page and run it anywhere Pine Script® runs.

## Related indicators

- [Monte Carlo Shuffled Projection](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/monte-carlo-shuffled-projection/) (Monte Carlo Price Paths): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/monte-carlo-shuffled-projection.md
- [Monte Carlo Mean Reversion Heatmap](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/monte-carlo-mean-reversion-heatmap/) (Monte Carlo Price Paths): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/monte-carlo-mean-reversion-heatmap.md
- [Monte Carlo Expected Move Distribution](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/monte-carlo-expected-move-distribution/) (Monte Carlo Price Paths): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/monte-carlo-expected-move-distribution.md
- [Predictive Monte Carlo Engine](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/predictive-monte-carlo-engine/) (Monte Carlo Price Paths): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/predictive-monte-carlo-engine.md
- [Probability Grid](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/probability-grid/) (Probability Cones): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/probability-grid.md
- [3D Opportunity Cone](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/3d-opportunity-cone/) (Probability Cones): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/3d-opportunity-cone.md
- [Spline Quantile Regression Channel](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/spline-quantile-regression-channel/) (Statistics): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/spline-quantile-regression-channel.md
- [Precision Market Entropy Heatmap](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/precision-market-entropy-heatmap/) (Statistics): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/precision-market-entropy-heatmap.md

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Source: https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/anchored-monte-carlo-shuffled-projection/ (LuxAlgo Library). Free to use with attribution: https://www.luxalgo.com/library/license/