# Bitcoin Expectile Model Bitcoin Expectile Model is an indicator on [Vela](https://vela.luxalgo.com/chart), our next-generation charting platform, written in Pine Script®. The Bitcoin Expectile Model fits seven expectile log-log regressions across Bitcoin's entire price history, mapping accumulation and distribution zones and extrapolating them forward. Designed for the all-time index on 3-day or weekly log charts, it gives long-horizon investors a statistical frame for tops, bottoms, and forward price paths. - Indicator in the LuxAlgo Library, by LuxAlgo, published Aug 13, 2025. - Access: free. - Concepts: [Quantile Regression](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/quantile-regression/) (primary), [Crypto Cycle Models](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/crypto-cycle-models/) - Open on Vela: https://vela.luxalgo.com/chart?pineScriptCodeId=cmpwn0f4e000lvhsgtdz7okxv - Page: https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/bitcoin-expectile-model/ The **Bitcoin Expectile Model** maps Bitcoin's long-run trajectory with seven expectile log-log regressions, a squared-error cousin of [quantile regression](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/quantile-regression/) that is cheaper to fit at many levels at once. Low tau values hug historical lows and accumulation territory; high taus track the highs where corrections have started. Inspired by PlanC's Bitcoin Quantile Model, it is built for the Bitcoin all-time-history index on 3-day or weekly log-scale charts, though assets with a long upward bias can be fitted on daily or higher timeframes. ## How to Trade the Bitcoin Expectile Model? - **Green zone**: the long-term buy and accumulation area defined by the lower expectile fits. - **Purple zone**: rare overshoot bottoms, historically anomalous value below even the accumulation fits. - **Red zone**: the distribution area where prior cycles saw sustained selling. - **Forward paths**: fits extrapolate to your Forecast End date, sketching potential long-term corridors. Treat it as a slow variable, like any [crypto cycle model](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/crypto-cycle-models/): context for accumulation and distribution decisions, not a signal generator. On other assets, a linear scale and a later Start Date can repurpose the fits as shorter-term support and resistance mapping. ## Bitcoin Expectile Model Settings - **Start Date** (default 2010-07-16): where the fit begins, matching common Bitcoin model conventions. - **Correct for Genesis Block**: offsets the X-axis for the missing bars before recorded price history. - **Expectiles**: enable individual fits and set each tau to sit nearer the highs or the lows. - **Forecast End**: the date at which extrapolated projections stop. - **Iterations Number**: precision versus speed. More iterations sharpen the fit but compute longer. ## Frequently Asked Questions ### How do expectiles differ from quantiles? Quantile regression minimizes a weighted absolute error (the pinball loss), while expectile regression minimizes a weighted squared error, simpler to compute via iteratively reweighted least squares. Quantiles are easier to interpret statistically; expectiles trade that for flexibility and speed. ### How does it compare with the Bitcoin Power Law? The [Bitcoin Power Law](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/bitcoin-power-law/) wraps a single regression in symmetric channel bands, while this model fits seven independent levels, each zone reflecting its own slice of history. Together they give a corridor view and a distribution view of the same trend. ### Is the Bitcoin Expectile Model free to use? Yes, it is available from this LuxAlgo Library page at no cost, and the same page can load it into Quant, our coding agent, for experimenting across assets and timeframes. You can also copy the source code from this page and run it anywhere Pine Script® runs. ## Related indicators - [Spline Quantile Regression Channel](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/spline-quantile-regression-channel/) (Quantile Regression): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/spline-quantile-regression-channel.md - [Bitcoin Power Law](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/bitcoin-power-law/) (Crypto Cycle Models): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/bitcoin-power-law.md - [Bitcoin Power Law Clock](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/bitcoin-power-law-clock/) (Crypto Cycle Models): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/bitcoin-power-law-clock.md - [Recursive Least Squares Forecast](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/recursive-least-squares-forecast/) (Linear Regression): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/recursive-least-squares-forecast.md - [Adaptive Harmonic Forecast](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/adaptive-harmonic-forecast/) (FFT/spectral Analysis): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/adaptive-harmonic-forecast.md - [Kalman Filter](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/kalman-filter/) (Statistics): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/kalman-filter.md - [Rolling Segment](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/rolling-segment/) (Linear Regression): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/rolling-segment.md - [Daily Polynomial Regressions](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/daily-polynomial-regressions/) (Polynomial Regression): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/daily-polynomial-regressions.md --- Source: https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/bitcoin-expectile-model/ (LuxAlgo Library). Free to use with attribution: https://www.luxalgo.com/library/license/