# Probabilistic Breakout Forecaster Probabilistic Breakout Forecaster is an indicator on [Vela](https://vela.luxalgo.com/chart), our next-generation charting platform, written in Pine Script®. Probabilistic Breakout Forecaster quantifies the odds that price sits beyond its recent range high or low once a chosen number of bars has elapsed, using a log-normal random walk model over current volatility. Twin probability curves track the bullish and bearish sides while a dashboard adds squeeze intensity, helping breakout traders separate coiled markets from dead ones. - Indicator in the LuxAlgo Library, by LuxAlgo, published Mar 13, 2026. - Access: free. - Concepts: [Breakout](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/breakout/) (primary) - Open on Vela: https://vela.luxalgo.com/chart?pineScriptCodeId=cmpwn4ue6006rvhsgjldcyy2q - Page: https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/probabilistic-breakout-forecaster/ **Probabilistic Breakout Forecaster** answers the breakout trader's real question: not "is price near the boundary?" but "how likely is it to [break out](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/breakout/) before time runs out?" It models future movement as a log-normal random walk, measures the distance to the recent range high and low, and converts volatility and time into explicit probabilities through the normal cumulative distribution function. The output sits in a separate pane as two curves: bullish probability plotted above zero, bearish below. ## How to Trade the Probabilistic Breakout Forecaster? - **Bullish line toward 50%**: statistically elevated odds of price sitting above the range high at the end of the forecast horizon; 50% is the ceiling, reached when price closes at the range high. - **Bearish line toward -50%**: the downside mirror, growing probability of price sitting below the range low at the end of the horizon; -50% is the floor, reached when price closes at the range low. - **Squeeze Intensity above 50%**: ATR running well below its 100-period average, compression that frequently resolves into directional expansion; probability building while the market is coiled is the setup the tool was built to catch. - **Probability versus price action**: a boundary test with weak probability warns of a potential fakeout, while probability rising ahead of the move supports genuine expansion. The model states odds within the chosen horizon, a filter for judgment, not a certainty of movement. ## Probabilistic Breakout Forecaster Settings - **Range Length**: the lookback defining the range high and low that act as breakout boundaries. - **Forecast Horizon (Bars)**: how far ahead the model projects. Longer horizons raise the odds of reaching a boundary but blur timing. - **Volatility Lookback**: the window for the standard deviation of log returns, which sets how wide the projected distribution becomes. - **Dashboard and visuals**: Enable Dashboard with Position and Size, plus plot colors and Fill Transparency. ## Frequently Asked Questions ### What exactly do the two lines measure? Each shows the estimated probability that price sits beyond the current range boundary (the high for the bullish line, the low for the bearish) at the end of the forecast horizon, given present volatility. Both evolve as price, range, and volatility change. ### How does it complement the Predictive Monte Carlo Engine? The [Predictive Monte Carlo Engine](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/predictive-monte-carlo-engine/) draws the full distribution of simulated paths; this forecaster compresses similar statistical thinking into one number per side. Scanning with the curves and zooming in with the simulations is a natural workflow. ### Where can I get it? The Probabilistic Breakout Forecaster is free on the LuxAlgo Library, and Quant, our coding agent, can backtest its probability thresholds directly from this page. You can also copy the source code from this page and run it anywhere Pine Script® runs. ## Related indicators - [Breakouts with Tests & Retests](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/breakouts-with-tests-retests/) (Breakout): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/breakouts-with-tests-retests.md - [Breakout Detector (Previous MTF High Low Levels)](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/breakout-detector-previous-mtf-high-low-levels/) (Breakout): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/breakout-detector-previous-mtf-high-low-levels.md - [Candle Breakout Oscillator](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/candle-breakout-oscillator/) (Breakout): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/candle-breakout-oscillator.md - [Luminance Breakout Engine](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/luminance-breakout-engine/) (Breakout): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/luminance-breakout-engine.md - [Gap Fill Breakouts](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/gap-fill-breakouts/) (Breakout): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/gap-fill-breakouts.md - [Trendline Breakout Navigator](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/trendline-breakout-navigator/) (Breakout): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/trendline-breakout-navigator.md - [D-Shape Breakout Signals](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/d-shape-breakout-signals/) (Breakout): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/d-shape-breakout-signals.md - [Range Breakout Signals (Intrabar)](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/range-breakout-signals-intrabar/) (Breakout): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/range-breakout-signals-intrabar.md --- Source: https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/probabilistic-breakout-forecaster/ (LuxAlgo Library). Free to use with attribution: https://www.luxalgo.com/library/license/