# Probability Grid

Probability Grid is an indicator on [Vela](https://vela.luxalgo.com/chart), our next-generation charting platform, written in Pine Script®.

The Probability Grid maps where the next reversal is statistically likely to land, projecting a 10x10 grid of percentile cells built from your chart's own swing history. Each cell states the odds of a reversal beyond or within it, shown as an on-chart grid or a compact dashboard. For traders who want reversal timing framed as measured probabilities rather than hunches.

- Indicator in the LuxAlgo Library, by LuxAlgo, published Apr 9, 2025.
- Access: free.
- Concepts: [Distribution-of-returns Profiling](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/distribution-of-returns-profiling/) (primary), [Probability Cones](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/probability-cones/)
- Open on Vela: https://vela.luxalgo.com/chart?pineScriptCodeId=cmpwn4uzy006svhsgairry0jw
- Page: https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/probability-grid/

**Probability Grid** turns the question of when a move ends into measured odds. It profiles the [distribution of returns](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/concept/distribution-of-returns-profiling/) between past reversals, slices that history into percentiles, and projects a 10x10 grid forward from the last confirmed reversal. The further price travels across the grid, the higher the calculated odds that the move ends there. Percentile rows from 0 to 90 display by default, and each can be enabled, disabled, or adjusted, with at least two always active.

## How to Trade the Probability Grid?

- **Price deep in the grid**: in the default Probability Beyond Each Cell mode, a cell marked 9% means an estimated 9% chance that the next reversal comes both further in price and later in time than that cell, a stretched move.
- **Probability Within Each Cell**: the alternative mode reads odds cell by cell; at default deciles every cell starts near 1%.
- **Dashboard mode**: the same statistics condensed into a panel in one of three preset locations, for traders who want the numbers without the overlay.

Normalization keeps the math fair: by default the tool works on returns between reversals rather than raw price deltas, so old history stays comparable with recent action. It sits alongside LuxAlgo's other [statistics tools](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/family/statistics/) as a probability-first way to frame exhaustion.

## Probability Grid Settings

- **Swing Length**: maximum bar length for swing recognition, the reversals that seed the dataset.
- **Maximum Reversals**: caps how many past reversals feed the calculation.
- **Normalize Data**: toggle between swing returns (default) and raw price data.
- **Probability**: choose odds beyond each cell (default) or within each cell.
- **Percentiles**: enable, disable, or restyle each percentile row.
- **Dashboard and styling**: dashboard visibility, position, and size, plus grid visibility, text size, colors, and reversal marks.

## Frequently Asked Questions

### Is the Probability Grid free to use?
Yes, it is part of the free LuxAlgo Library, and you can load it into Quant, our coding agent, straight from this page to test ideas against its reversal statistics. You can also copy the source code from this page and run it anywhere Pine Script® runs.

### Should I use the grid or the dashboard?
Both present the same probabilities. The grid projects cells forward from the last reversal directly on price, while the dashboard parks the numbers in a corner panel, which keeps busy charts readable.

### How does it compare with other LuxAlgo reversal tools?
Most reversal tools mark patterns or levels; the Probability Grid states odds computed from your chart's own reversal history. If you prefer odds expressed as horizontal levels, [Reversal Probability Zone Levels](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/reversal-probability-zone-levels/) works that angle.

## Related indicators

- [Consecutive Candle Streak Analysis](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/consecutive-candle-streak-analysis/) (Distribution-of-returns Profiling): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/consecutive-candle-streak-analysis.md
- [ATR Exceedance Probability Model](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/atr-exceedance-probability-model/) (Distribution-of-returns Profiling): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/atr-exceedance-probability-model.md
- [Visible Range Mean Deviation Histogram](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/visible-range-mean-deviation-histogram/) (Distribution-of-returns Profiling): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/visible-range-mean-deviation-histogram.md
- [Day Of Week Price Distribution](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/day-of-week-price-distribution/) (Distribution-of-returns Profiling): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/day-of-week-price-distribution.md
- [3D Opportunity Cone](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/3d-opportunity-cone/) (Probability Cones): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/3d-opportunity-cone.md
- [Predictive Monte Carlo Engine](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/predictive-monte-carlo-engine/) (Probability Cones): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/predictive-monte-carlo-engine.md
- [Reversal Probability Zone & Levels](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/reversal-probability-zone-levels/) (Percentile Rank): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/reversal-probability-zone-levels.md
- [Change-Point Detection (CUSUM)](https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/change-point-detection-cusum/) (Outlier Detection): markdown at https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/change-point-detection-cusum.md

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Source: https://www.luxalgo.com/library/indicator/probability-grid/ (LuxAlgo Library). Free to use with attribution: https://www.luxalgo.com/library/license/