--- title: "Prop Firm Sim: Free Prop Firm Challenge Simulator" description: "Know your odds before you pay the fee. Simulate 10,000 runs of any prop firm challenge with your real stats: your pass probability, which rule fails you, how many attempts to expect, and what it will cost." canonical: https://www.luxalgo.com/prop-firm-sim/ --- # Prop Firm Sim: Free Prop Firm Challenge Simulator > Know your odds before you pay the fee. Simulate 10,000 runs of any prop firm challenge with your real stats: your pass probability, which rule fails you, how many attempts to expect, and what it will cost. ## Know your odds before you pay the fee. Before you pay another challenge fee, simulate it: ten thousand complete attempts through the firm’s exact rules. Your real pass odds, the rule that actually kills attempts, and what the journey will cost. Free, deterministic, open source. - Open the simulator: https://www.luxalgo.com/prop-firms/#simulator - Hosted MCP: https://mcp.luxalgo.com/mcp - GitHub: https://github.com/LuxAlgo/prop-firm-sim ## The rules are the hard part. A trailing drawdown is not a static one, and end-of-day is not intraday: the difference decides challenges. The engine encodes each firm’s exact max-loss mode, daily-loss behavior, consistency rules, and payout gates, and anything it cannot faithfully simulate it says so, out loud, in the result. Max-loss floors: static from initial balance; trails end-of-day highs; trails peak equity intraday; trails, then locks at breakeven. Rulesets come from the public prop-firm directory under a three-tier honesty policy: structured columns pass verbatim, single-reading inferences are disclosed as provenance: directory+inferred with the fields named, and genuine ambiguity is refused as not simulatable. Any ruleset can also be passed inline, fully offline. ## Distributions, never a verdict. Every SimResult echoes its engine version, and every percentage carries its interval. - Pass probability: Per phase and joint, each with a Wilson 95% confidence interval. - Failure autopsy: Which rule actually kills attempts: daily loss, max loss, time limits. - Expected attempts + EV: Attempts, total cost with every fee priced in, and expected value. - Time and stagnation: Days to funding, plus how long paths drift without a new equity high. - Funded-life odds: Probability a funded account ever collects a payout, days to the first one, and the blow-up rate. - Sensitivity: What one point of win-rate optimism costs you, made visible. ## Or bring your real trades. Import a trade export and the engine block-bootstraps your actual R-multiple series (stationary bootstrap, mean block length 5), so your streaks and autocorrelation survive into the simulation. R-multiples are computed, never fabricated: a file with P&L but no risk data is refused, not guessed at. Imports: TradingView list of trades, MT4 / MT5 statements, MT5 deals tables, ThinkOrSwim statements, timestamped CSV template, Broker SDK JSON. ## Filters and audits, disclosed. The news filter replays your log with trades inside configurable event windows removed, same seed both runs, and every filtered result says so (the calendar is a recurring template, not a historical feed). The portfolio overlap audit merges up to five strategy histories and flags same-direction overlap against disclosed bands: under 10% low, 10 to 30% elevated, above 30% high. ## Deterministic - Deterministic under seed: Permalinks reproduce byte for byte. 10,000 paths run in about a third of a second. - Golden snapshots: Silent drift in published odds is the one bug this repo treats as unforgivable. - Client-side by default: The on-site simulator runs the same engine in your browser: nothing you enter leaves it. ## The engine, already in production. This is not a demo repo. The interactive simulator on the prop-firms hub runs it client-side, and every major challenge has a worked-through reference page: 10,000 paths at seed 42 on the firm’s exact rules, for three reference trader profiles, regenerated from the open dataset. - Reference pass-rate pages: https://www.luxalgo.com/mcp/prop-firm-sim/ ## Twelve tools, live and hosted. The whole engine and the live prop-firm directory are on the hosted LuxAlgo MCP at mcp.luxalgo.com/mcp, free and keyless: any agent can pull a ruleset, simulate your stats or your real trades, sweep risk, and screen every challenge, right now, mid-conversation. - `propfirms_simulate`: Monte Carlo of your stats through a firm’s exact ruleset: pass probability with CI, which rule kills attempts, expected attempts and cost, EV. - `propfirms_simulate_trades`: Same, from your real R-multiple trade series; the block bootstrap preserves your streaks. - `propfirms_optimal_risk`: Risk sweep: pass-optimal vs EV-optimal risk per trade. They differ. - `propfirms_compare`: Same trader across up to 12 challenges, EV-sorted. Not a ranking. - `propfirms_pass_rates`: The site’s reference-archetype odds, recomputed live (seed 42, 10k paths). - `propfirms_validate_strategy`: Screen one strategy across every simulatable challenge against an explicit pass bar. - `propfirms_challenge_rules`: One challenge’s full encoded ruleset, editable and re-simulatable inline. - `propfirms_list_simulatable`: Every simulatable firm and challenge in the live directory, provenance-disclosed. - `propfirms_search`: Search firms; filters compose with nested challenge and offer filters. - `propfirms_get`: One firm’s full dossier: profile, every challenge, live offers. - `propfirms_search_challenges`: Search challenges by rules (size, fee, steps, split, drawdown) and firm. - `propfirms_search_offers`: Current discounts and promo codes, resolvable per firm or challenge. ## One npx from your first distribution. Three packages on npm: the pure engine, the CLI, and the MCP server. The same simulate call also runs an optimal-risk sweep, a 12-way challenge compare, and a portfolio overlap audit. ```bash npx @luxalgo/prop-firm-sim-cli simulate \ --firm ftmo --challenge 100k-2step \ --winrate 0.48 --avg-win 1.6 --avg-loss 1 \ --risk 1% --trades-per-day 4 # deterministic under seed; permalinks # reproduce byte for byte ``` ## Distributions, not promises. Seed 42. Byte for byte. MIT-licensed, deterministic, and open about every assumption it makes. The odds are the product; the honesty is the point. Simulation, not prediction. Results are Monte Carlo distributions under the stated assumptions and the encoded ruleset, not financial advice and not a guarantee of passing any challenge. Firms change their rules; the firm’s own published rules are always authoritative. The reference pass-rate pages carry the full methodology. "TradingView" and "Pine Script" are trademarks or registered trademarks of TradingView, Inc. LuxAlgo is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by TradingView, Inc. Sitemap: https://www.luxalgo.com/sitemap.xml · Machine-readable index: https://www.luxalgo.com/llms.txt