Elliott Wave Probability System Pro v2

The Elliott Wave Probability System Pro indicator provides a comprehensive framework for identifying Elliott Wave structures and calculating the probability of reaching specific price targets based on multi-factor trend analysis. It combines wave theory with technical momentum indicators to help traders visualize potential market paths and their statistical likelihood.

Usage

The tool can be used to identify trend direction and potential reversal or continuation targets. By default, the script analyzes the last 75 bars using five distinct methods (price range position, linear regression slope, moving average alignment, price action patterns, and bar counts) to determine a dominant trend.

Users can toggle the Adaptive Target Direction setting. When enabled, price targets are projected following the 75-bar trend, ensuring that projections remain aligned with the larger market structure even during short-term counter-trend momentum. When disabled, targets are based on immediate momentum scores derived from RSI, MACD, and Stochastic oscillators.

Visual projections appear on the chart as lines when the calculated probability exceeds 40%. The probability of hitting these targets is displayed in an on-screen table, which adjusts dynamically based on trend strength and distance from the current price.

Details

The script calculates a "Trend Score" to filter out noise. This score is built on:

• Linear Regression Slope: Measures the direction and steepness of the price path.
• MA Alignment: Checks for a bullish/bearish stack of the 20 and 50 SMAs.
• Market Structure: Evaluates the presence of higher highs/lows or lower highs/lows.
• Volume Analysis: Integrates volume relative to its moving average to weight the strength of price movements.

Probabilities are not static; they decay as targets get further from the current price, with a minimum floor of 15% to maintain realistic expectations. Base probabilities are elevated to 70% during strong trends and reduced to 50% during neutral or ranging markets.

Settings

Elliott Wave

• Wave Detection Period: Sets the lookback for identifying pivot highs and lows used in wave construction.
• Show Wave Labels: Toggles the visibility of wave count labels on the chart.
• Show Wave Connection Lines: Toggles the lines connecting identified pivots.
• Trend Detection Lookback: Sets the number of bars used to calculate the dominant trend (default is 75).

Fibonacci

• Show Fibonacci Levels: Displays horizontal Fibonacci retracement and extension levels.
• Fib Calculation Lookback: The number of bars used to determine the high/low range for Fibonacci levels.

Technical Indicators

• RSI/MACD/Stochastic/Volume Settings: Standard parameters for the underlying technical oscillators used in the probability scoring system.

Probability

• Show Probability Table: Toggles the on-screen dashboard showing price targets and odds.
• Number of Price Targets: Adjusts how many projection levels are displayed.
• Adaptive Target Direction: When active, forces targets to align with the 75-bar trend.

FAQ

How do I interpret the probability table?

The table shows specific price levels and the statistical likelihood of price reaching them based on current trend strength and technical alignment. Higher percentages indicate stronger confluence between the trend and indicators.

Why are targets pointing against short-term momentum?

If "Adaptive Target Direction" is on, the script prioritizes the 75-bar trend. This prevents "bull traps" where a small bounce in a major downtrend might otherwise trigger bullish targets.

How can I access Elliott Wave Probability System Pro?

You can get access on the LuxAlgo Library for charting platforms like TradingView, MetaTrader (MT4/MT5), and NinjaTrader for free.