Will you pass your Futures challenge?
Monte Carlo simulation of every major challenge’s exact rules: open source, reproducible, no signup.
The simulator
Test yourself against the exact rules.
Pick a challenge (or encode custom rules), describe your trading, and run 10,000 Monte Carlo paths: every drawdown mode, daily-loss switch, consistency rule, fee, and payout gate enforced as published. Copy the link to share an exact, reproducible run.
Precomputed odds
Twelve challenges, three reference traders.
Every cell below is computed at seed 42, 10,000 paths per cell, with the open-source engine on rules encoded from each firm’s published terms. Every number reproduces, to the digit, from the same inputs. Three reference profiles bracket a realistic range: this is a distribution, not a ranking, and never a promise. Engine and dataset: github.com/LuxAlgo/prop-firm-sim.
Precomputed odds
Not a ranking: simulated odds for three reference profiles.| Challenge | Developing trader | Consistent trader | Proven edge | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass % | EV | Payout | Pass % | EV | Payout | Pass % | EV | Payout | |
Alpha Capital Group · Alpha Pro 100K (10% drawdown, 2-step) CFD | 55.0% | +$14,114 | 74.2% | 95.3% | +$49,903 | 98.0% | 100.0% | +$48,813 | 100.0% |
Apex Trader Funding · 50K Full Evaluation Futures | 45.6% | +$2,730 | 26.5% | 76.8% | +$8,481 | 71.2% | 97.7% | +$9,311 | 97.1% |
FTMO · FTMO Challenge 100K (2-step) CFD | 45.8% | +$11,532 | 68.3% | 94.9% | +$49,620 | 97.5% | 100.0% | +$49,297 | 100.0% |
Funded Trading Plus · Advanced Trader Program 100K (2-phase) CFD | 43.1% | +$4,975 | 78.0% | 90.9% | +$12,374 | 97.5% | 100.0% | +$29,961 | 100.0% |
FundedNext · Stellar 2-Step 100K CFD | 49.7% | +$11,031 | 55.6% | 95.1% | +$49,845 | 96.4% | 100.0% | +$49,310 | 100.0% |
FundingPips · 2-Step Standard 100K CFD | 55.0% | +$14,293 | 74.2% | 95.3% | +$50,006 | 98.0% | 100.0% | +$48,911 | 100.0% |
MyFundedFutures · Rapid EOD 50K Futures | 29.2% | +$1,265 | 48.5% | 68.3% | +$6,629 | 75.6% | 95.3% | +$20,753 | 95.9% |
TakeProfit Trader · 50K Test Futures | 44.3% | +$1,348 | 49.1% | 72.9% | +$5,840 | 76.1% | 95.6% | +$18,309 | 95.9% |
The5ers · High Stakes 100K (2-step) CFD | 49.7% | +$11,183 | 68.6% | 95.1% | +$49,191 | 97.7% | 100.0% | +$48,815 | 100.0% |
ThinkCapital · Dual Step 100K (Intraday model) CFD | 30.5% | +$4,750 | 47.3% | 85.9% | +$40,024 | 92.0% | 99.9% | +$49,211 | 99.9% |
Topstep · Trading Combine 50K Futures | 38.1% | +$2,429 | 40.5% | 71.0% | +$13,702 | 72.3% | 95.6% | +$21,405 | 96.4% |
Tradeify · Select Evaluation 50K Futures | 33.5% | +$1,279 | 40.7% | 69.7% | +$3,184 | 73.5% | 95.4% | +$3,973 | 96.3% |
Seed 42 · 10,000 paths per cell · engine v1.1.2. Deterministic Monte Carlo: same seed, same numbers. Pass % is per attempt, with its 95% CI on hover; EV is net of every fee. Assumptions and unsimulated rules are listed in each challenge’s simulator view.
Simulated pass rates under stated assumptions (seed 42, 10,000 paths, engine v1.1.2). Per-page detail on the simulated pass-rate pages.
Read the rules like the engine does
Why your odds are worse than you think.
Trailing drawdown is four rules
“Trailing drawdown” is one label shared by four different rules: a static floor under the initial balance, a floor that ratchets on end-of-day highs, one that trails your intraday peak with open profit included, and one that trails only until it locks at breakeven. Same headline number, very different odds: an intraday-unrealized trail can end an account on a winner you gave back, while a static floor never moves. In our simulations the trail, not the profit target, is the leading cause of death, so establish which of the four you are buying before comparing anything else.
The daily loss is four switches
A daily loss limit is not one number; it is four switches: what the day anchors to (yesterday’s balance or equity), what the limit is a slice of (the initial balance or the day’s anchor), whether open profit counts against you, and whether it is checked every tick or only at the close. Two firms both advertising “5% daily” can sit on opposite ends of that switchboard: one fails you on an intraday dip that recovers, the other only ever looks at the close. The simulator flips the exact switches each firm publishes.
Consistency raises your target
A consistency rule caps how much of your total profit one day may contribute: best day at most 40% means your real target is whichever is larger (the stated target, or your best day divided by 0.4). One outsized winner does not fail you; it moves the finish line, forcing extra days at risk under a drawdown floor that has already ratcheted on your good closes. That is why simulated pass rates drop when consistency switches on, even though the rule never breaches an account by itself.
Getting funded is not getting paid
Passing buys a funded login, not a withdrawal. Funded accounts keep their loss rules and add payout gates (minimum winning days, a minimum profit for a day to count, buffers that can never be withdrawn, caps per request), and a share of funded accounts breach before ever clearing them. That is why every odds table here carries a payout-probability column: the number that actually pays is not the pass rate, it is the chance a funded account survives to its first payout.
Frequent questions.
There is no universal pass rate: it is a property of the trader × the rules, which is why we publish a distribution instead of one number. Across the twelve challenges simulated here, the same developing trader (45% win rate, 1.4R winners, 1% risk) passes roughly 29–55% of attempts per attempt depending on the firm’s drawdown and consistency rules, while a proven edge passes 95%+ almost everywhere. The simulator on this page runs your own numbers under any firm’s exact rules.
Partner offers
LuxAlgo may earn a commission when you use these links or codes. Offers never influence the odds above.