Extrapolated Previous Trend
Jul 25, 2023
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The Extrapolated Previous Trend indicator extrapolates the estimated linear trend of the prices within a previous interval to the current interval. Intervals can be user-defined.
USAGE
Returned lines can be used to provide a forecast of trends, assuming trends are persistent in sign and slope.
Using them as support/resistance can also be an effecting usage in case the trend in a new interval does not follow the characteristic of the trend in the previous interval.
The indicator includes a dashboard showing the degree of persistence between segmented trends for uptrends and downtrends. A higher value is indicative of more persistent trend signs.
A lower value could hint at an anti-persistent behavior, with uptrends over an interval often being followed by a down-trend and vice versa. We can invert candle colors to determine future trend direction in this case.
DETAILS
This indicator can be thought of as a segmented linear model (a(n)t + b(n)), where n is the specific interval index. Unlike a regular segmented linear regression model, this indicator is not subject to lookahead bias, coefficients of the model are obtained on previous intervals.
The quality of the fit of the model is dependent on the variability of its coefficients a(n) and b(n). Coefficients being less subject to change over time are more indicative of trend persistence.
SETTINGS
- Timeframe: Determine the frequency at which new trends are estimated.
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