Probabilistic Breakout Forecaster

Probabilistic Breakout Forecaster answers the breakout trader's real question: not "is price near the boundary?" but "how likely is it to break out before time runs out?" It models future movement as a log-normal random walk, measures the distance to the recent range high and low, and converts volatility and time into explicit probabilities through the normal cumulative distribution function. The output sits in a separate pane as two curves: bullish probability plotted above zero, bearish below.

How to Trade the Probabilistic Breakout Forecaster?

• Bullish line toward or above 50%: statistically elevated odds of breaking the range high within the forecast horizon.
• Bearish line toward or below -50%: the downside mirror, growing probability of losing the range low.
• Squeeze Intensity above 50%: ATR running well below its 100-period average, compression that frequently resolves into directional expansion; probability building while the market is coiled is the setup the tool was built to catch.
• Probability versus price action: a boundary test with weak probability warns of a potential fakeout, while probability rising ahead of the move supports genuine expansion.

The model states odds within the chosen horizon, a filter for judgment, not a certainty of movement.

Probabilistic Breakout Forecaster Settings

• Range Length: the lookback defining the range high and low that act as breakout boundaries.
• Forecast Horizon (Bars): how far ahead the model projects. Longer horizons raise the odds of reaching a boundary but blur timing.
• Volatility Lookback: the window for the standard deviation of log returns, which sets how wide the projected distribution becomes.
• Dashboard and visuals: Enable Dashboard with Position and Size, plus plot colors and Fill Transparency.

Frequently Asked Questions

What exactly do the two lines measure?

How does it complement the Predictive Monte Carlo Engine?

Where can I get it?