AetherEdge - Pattern Probability Scanner

The AetherEdge - Pattern Probability Scanner indicator automatically identifies classic chart patterns and calculates their historical success rates based on previous occurrences on the current chart. This tool aims to provide traders with quantitative insights into pattern reliability, displaying a "win rate" for each detection to assist in objective decision-making.

Usage

The Usage section describes how the script can be used, examples should be provided in this section. This section also focuses on how main settings affect the indicator interpretation and output.

The indicator scans for five primary geometric structures: Double Top, Double Bottom, Head & Shoulders (H&S), Inverse H&S, and Triangles. When a pattern is confirmed via swing point analysis, a label appears on the chart identifying the pattern type along with its empirical win rate (e.g., "DOUBLE TOP 70%").

• High-Conviction Signals: Patterns with win rates above 55% are often highlighted to indicate higher historical reliability on that specific asset and timeframe.
• Cautionary Signals: Patterns with win rates below 45% suggest the structure frequently fails to reach its objective, signaling a need for caution.
• Execution: Traders typically use the identified necklines or pattern-low/high breaks as entry points. For instance, a Double Top detection provides a clear level (the intervening low) that must be breached to confirm the bearish reversal.

Details

The tool utilizes rule-based geometric detection derived from confirmed swing highs and lows. These points are harvested using ta.pivothigh and ta.pivotlow functions.

• Geometric Rules: A Double Top is defined as two near-equal swing highs within a specific percentage tolerance separated by an intervening low. An H&S pattern requires three highs where the middle is the highest and the outer two are within a set tolerance.
• Win Rate Calculation: The script buffers each detection and monitors price action over a user-defined "Outcome Horizon." A "win" is recorded if price moves in the predicted direction by a specified multiple of the Average True Range (ATR). The result is a localized success percentage: Wins / (Wins + Losses) * 100.
• Non-Repainting: Detection is based on confirmed pivots, meaning once a pattern is labeled, its historical position remains fixed.

Settings

Detection

• Pivot Confirmation Bars: Sets the number of bars required on each side of a swing for confirmation. Smaller values detect finer patterns; larger values focus on major structures.
• Equal-Level Tolerance (%): Determines how close two price levels must be to be considered "equal."
• Max Pattern Span (bars): Limits the maximum distance allowed between the first and last pivot of a pattern.

Win-Rate Learning

• Track Per-Pattern Win Rate: Enables or disables the historical success tracking logic.
• Outcome Horizon (bars): The number of future bars the script examines to determine if a pattern was successful.
• Required Move (ATR): The distance price must travel in the expected direction, measured in ATR, to qualify as a "win."

Visuals & HUD

• Palette: Allows selection between different color themes (Emerald/Ruby, Spectral, etc.).
• Draw Pattern Lines: Toggles the visibility of the connecting lines between pivots.
• Show HUD: Enables an on-screen display listing the total count and win rate for every supported pattern.

FAQ

How can I see the success rate of a specific pattern? The win rate is displayed directly on the pattern label above or below the price action and is also listed in the on-screen HUD for a cumulative view.

Why does the indicator show "— (no data)" for some patterns? The win rate only populates after a pattern has appeared and completed its "Outcome Horizon" at least once. It is recommended to wait for approximately 10 detections for the statistics to become meaningful.

How do I get access to the AetherEdge - Pattern Probability Scanner? You can get access on the LuxAlgo Library for charting platforms like TradingView, MetaTrader (MT4/MT5), and NinjaTrader for free.