Volume Surprise

Volume Surprise compares every bar's volume against a statistically expected value for that moment, a time-aware cousin of relative volume. History is grouped into matching buckets (this hour against past prints of the same hour, this weekday against the same weekday), each group is summarized, and both actual and expected volume plot on the chart with the expected path projected into upcoming bars. A histogram isolates the deviation itself, usable as a standalone volume-momentum read.

How to Trade the Volume Surprise?

• Positive surprise: volume well beyond expectation often accompanies strong breakouts or event-driven moves and can confirm trend strength.
• Negative surprise: participation below the norm for that time (a rally on quiet volume, or a muted reaction to a headline) hints at fading interest.
• Percentile mode: a percentile near 100 isolates only the rarest heavy prints (95 flags bars beating 95% of history at that time); near 0 highlights exceptionally quiet conditions.
• Forecast path: projected expected volume maps when activity should swell, putting time-of-day effects on the chart before they play out.

Expected values are most trustworthy on assets with firm cyclical rhythms: stocks, futures, forex pairs. Around-the-clock crypto shows weaker periodicity, so its readings deserve more caution.

Volume Surprise Settings

• Length: the maximum historical samples per time group. More history steadies expectations and surfaces recurring patterns.
• Smooth: a moving-average period applied to the expected value.
• Auto Selection: picks period combinations to match the chart timeframe; disable it to group manually by minutes, hours, days, months, or quarters.
• Method / Percentile: summarizes each group by Mean (default) or by the percentile you set.
• Forecast Window / Style: how many future bars of expected volume to project, and how the projection is drawn.

Frequently Asked Questions

Should I combine several time periods?

What's the difference from Volume Forecasting?

How can I access Volume Surprise?