CFD · open dataset · verified 2026-01-15
Funded Trading Plus Advanced Trader Program 100K (2-phase) pass rate: simulated odds
10,000 Monte Carlo paths per profile at seed 42, on the challenge’s exact published rules. Distributions under stated assumptions, never promises.
Developing trader
45% win rate, 1.4R average winner, 4 trades/day, risking 1% per trade
43.1%
pass per attempt · 95% CI 42.5%–43.7%
Consistent trader
48% win rate, 1.6R average winner, 4 trades/day, risking 0.75% per trade
90.9%
pass per attempt · 95% CI 90.3%–91.4%
Proven edge
52% win rate, 1.8R average winner, 3 trades/day, risking 0.5% per trade
100.0%
pass per attempt · 95% CI 99.9%–100.0%
Seed 42 · 10,000 paths per profile · engine v1.1.2. EV is net of every fee across a full journey (attempts, resets, activation, then 90 funded trading days of gated payouts); payout probability is the chance a funded account collects at least once. Assumptions and unsimulated rules: trailing-ratchets-on-closed-balance, profit-split-scaling, trades-resolve-same-day, intra-trade-excursions-not-modeled, attempts-iid, funded-withdrawal-model. Details reproduce in the simulator run.
Precomputed odds
Not a ranking: simulated odds for three reference profiles.| Challenge | Developing trader | Consistent trader | Proven edge | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass % | EV | Payout | Pass % | EV | Payout | Pass % | EV | Payout | |
Funded Trading Plus · Advanced Trader Program 100K (2-phase) CFD | 43.1% | +$4,975 | 78.0% | 90.9% | +$12,374 | 97.5% | 100.0% | +$29,961 | 100.0% |
Seed 42 · 10,000 paths per cell · engine v1.1.2. Deterministic Monte Carlo: same seed, same numbers. Pass % is per attempt, with its 95% CI on hover; EV is net of every fee. Assumptions and unsimulated rules are listed in each challenge’s simulator view.
What the numbers say
Simulated at seed 42, 10,000 paths per archetype: reproduce every number in the on-page simulator. The trailing drawdown is the whole differential here: the developing trader (45% win rate, 1.4R average winner, four trades a day at 1% risk) passes 43.1% of attempts (CI 42.5–43.7%), a few points below what the same trader posts at static-floor programs with a lower first target, and 66.7% of its failures are trail breaches. The consistent trader (48%, 1.6R, 0.75% risk) passes 90.9%; the proven-edge trader (52%, 1.8R, 0.5% risk) failed twice in 10,002 observed attempts. Expected journey value: +$4,975, +$12,374, +$29,961 respectively, compressed relative to static-floor peers because the funded stage’s locked trail plus our maximum-withdrawal policy (flagged in every result) leaves accounts hugging the floor after payouts: 100% of developing and consistent funded accounts re-breached within the 90-trading-day horizon, and 77.0% of proven-edge accounts did.
The compensating asset is speed to cash: payouts are encoded from day zero on a weekly cycle, the simulated median first payout arrives on funded day 5, and 78.0% of even the marginal profile’s funded accounts collect at least once. If your plan is extract-early-and-often, the numbers support the structure; if your plan is compounding a long-lived funded account, the trail-plus-payout geometry works against you and the simulator will show it. Distributions under stated assumptions and a seeded engine, not guarantees.
The rules, worked through
The trailing maximum loss: profit never buys you room
The floor starts at $90,000 and ratchets up with your high-water mark: close a trade at $104,500 and the failure line is now $94,500, forever. The property that matters is what disappears: under a static rule, being up $4,500 means you can retrace $14,500; here your room from the peak is always at most $10,000, no matter how well the account has done. Per the firm’s help center the ratchet follows the highest achieved closed balance (intra-trade floating highs do not move it); the engine ratchets at trade closes, which matches that behavior at its granularity and is flagged accordingly. In our reference orderings, a trailing rule at equal size cuts pass probability by roughly a third to a half versus static for the same trader, and in this program’s 10,000-path developing run, 66.7% of failures were trail breaches against 33.3% at the daily line.
The daily loss: 5% from yesterday’s closed balance
The daily allowance is recomputed at each 23:59 server reset from the prior day’s closed balance, an anchor-based rule, so the dollar line scales with the account: a $102,000 close gives $5,100 of room the next day, a $96,000 close gives $4,800. Two details are flagged for verification rather than asserted: whether the 5% is computed on that balance or on the initial balance, and exactly how floating losses count toward the daily check. Compared with the trail, this rule is the junior partner: it accounts for a third of simulated marginal-profile failures.
No minimum days, and what that does to the distribution
There are no minimum trading days in either phase, so the evaluation can end as fast as your edge allows: the engine’s median time from first trade to funded for the consistent profile is 19 trading days, with the left tail meaningfully shorter. The price of that freedom is symmetric: nothing slows down a losing streak either, and with a trailing floor a hot start followed by a normal retrace is precisely the failure mode. Passing odds per attempt: 43.1% developing, 90.9% consistent, and two failures in 10,002 observed attempts for the proven-edge profile. The $549 fee does not refund; the developing profile’s expected total cost is $1,274 across an average 2.32 attempts.
Funded stage: the trail locks at breakeven, and payouts start immediately
On the funded account the same 10% relative drawdown applies but locks once the floor reaches the starting balance: after 10% of profit, the worst case is breakeven-and-out rather than a loss. Withdrawals are available from day zero and weekly thereafter (the account must be at least $50 above its start; the split ladder from 80% toward higher tiers at profit milestones is flagged, not simulated: we model the 80% base). Simulated over 90 funded trading days with maximum weekly withdrawals: the median first payout lands on funded day 5, and expected journey value is +$4,975 for the developing profile, +$12,374 consistent, +$29,961 proven-edge. The catch the numbers surface honestly: because maximum withdrawals leave the balance near the locked floor, nearly all marginal funded accounts eventually re-breach within the horizon. The EV is carried by money withdrawn early, not by long account survival. Verified 2026-01-15; the firm’s help center is authoritative as rules change.
Where these rules come from
Simulated from the open-source rules dataset entry funded-trading-plus/100k-advanced-2phase (last verified 2026-01-15, against the firm’s published terms and cited sources), simulated with the open-source engine at github.com/LuxAlgo/prop-firm-sim. Rules change; Funded Trading Plus’s own page is authoritative. Every number above is a seeded Monte Carlo estimate: re-run the same inputs and you get the same digits.
These are reference profiles. You are not one.
Open this exact challenge in the simulator (it restores the encoded rules at seed 42 and runs), then swap in your own win rate, R-multiples, and risk.
Frequent questions.
The 10% relative drawdown trails your highest achieved balance: the failure line starts at $90,000 and rises to peak-minus-$10,000 as you make new closed-balance highs, per the firm’s help center. It never comes back down, so profit never adds net room: the property that makes an identical trader measurably less likely to pass here than under a static floor of the same headline size. On the funded account it stops trailing at the starting balance once you are 10% up.