CFD · open dataset · verified 2026-01-15
FundedNext Stellar 2-Step 100K pass rate: simulated odds
10,000 Monte Carlo paths per profile at seed 42, on the challenge’s exact published rules. Distributions under stated assumptions, never promises.
Developing trader
45% win rate, 1.4R average winner, 4 trades/day, risking 1% per trade
49.7%
pass per attempt · 95% CI 49.0%–50.4%
Consistent trader
48% win rate, 1.6R average winner, 4 trades/day, risking 0.75% per trade
95.1%
pass per attempt · 95% CI 94.7%–95.5%
Proven edge
52% win rate, 1.8R average winner, 3 trades/day, risking 0.5% per trade
100.0%
pass per attempt · 95% CI 99.9%–100.0%
Seed 42 · 10,000 paths per profile · engine v1.1.2. EV is net of every fee across a full journey (attempts, resets, activation, then 90 funded trading days of gated payouts); payout probability is the chance a funded account collects at least once. Assumptions and unsimulated rules: profit-split-scaling, challenge-phase-profit-share, trades-resolve-same-day, intra-trade-excursions-not-modeled, daily-basis-equity-equals-balance, post-target-min-days-risk-free, attempts-iid, funded-withdrawal-model, calendar-days-approximated, trading-constraints-not-simulated. Details reproduce in the simulator run.
Precomputed odds
Not a ranking: simulated odds for three reference profiles.| Challenge | Developing trader | Consistent trader | Proven edge | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass % | EV | Payout | Pass % | EV | Payout | Pass % | EV | Payout | |
FundedNext · Stellar 2-Step 100K CFD | 49.7% | +$11,031 | 55.6% | 95.1% | +$49,845 | 96.4% | 100.0% | +$49,310 | 100.0% |
Seed 42 · 10,000 paths per cell · engine v1.1.2. Deterministic Monte Carlo: same seed, same numbers. Pass % is per attempt, with its 95% CI on hover; EV is net of every fee. Assumptions and unsimulated rules are listed in each challenge’s simulator view.
What the numbers say
Simulated at seed 42, 10,000 paths per profile: reproduce every figure in the simulator on this page. The developing archetype (45% win rate, 1.4R average winner, four trades a day, 1% risk) passes 49.7% of attempts (CI 49.0–50.4%), averages 2.01 attempts to fund, and shows +$11,031 expected value over the full journey including a 90-trading-day funded stretch at an 80% split. The consistent archetype (48%, 1.6R, 0.75% risk) passes 95.1% with +$49,845 EV; the proven-edge archetype (52%, 1.8R, 0.5% risk) passed every one of 10,001 simulated attempts but one. The evaluation itself is a fraction easier than a 10%-target two-step: an 8% first phase means fewer days of exposure to the $5,000 daily line.
The funded stage redistributes those wins. Under the engine’s withdrawal policy (take the maximum each cycle allows, never below the loss floor, a flagged assumption), 92.9% of the developing profile’s funded accounts breached within 90 trading days and just 55.6% banked a payout first, largely because nothing can be requested before day 21. That is the pattern to check against your own numbers: this program pays for traders who survive quietly, and the simulator will show you whether your risk size survives quietly.
The rules, worked through
The daily loss: a fixed $5,000, reset at midnight, floating included
The Maximum Daily Loss is 5% of the initial balance (always $5,000, never recomputed from your current balance), anchored to your level at the daily reset (midnight server time) and checked in real time against equity, open positions included. FundedNext’s own help-center example makes the mechanics concrete, and the engine encodes it the same way: if you are up $2,000 by midday, you now have $7,000 of room before the day’s line, because the line sits $5,000 below where the day started, not below your intraday peak. The flip side: profits made yesterday do not enlarge today’s allowance. For a 1%-risk profile that is five losing R in a day, and it is where nearly two thirds of that profile’s failed attempts end.
The 10% maximum loss is static: the floor never chases you
The overall floor is $90,000, fixed from the first trade to the last. Every dollar of profit is extra distance from failure: at $104,000 you can retrace $14,000 without breaching, which is exactly the property trailing-drawdown programs remove. In the 10,000-path run of the developing archetype, only 35.6% of failures came from this floor; the daily line got there first in the other 64.4%. Phase by phase, that profile passed the 8% step 66.5% of the time and the 5% step 74.7% of the time.
Payout gating: the 21-day first cycle is the quiet filter
As encoded (verified 2026-01-15), the funded account pays 80%, cycles roughly biweekly, and the first payout can be requested 21 days after the funded account starts; the challenge fee is refunded with the first payout. Here is what that wait does in simulation: the developing profile’s funded accounts breached 92.9% of the time within a 90-trading-day horizon, and only 55.6% ever collected a payout. Compare a program we encode with identical evaluation rules but a 14-day first cycle (The5ers High Stakes), where the same trader collects 68.6% of the time. One week of extra gating costs the marginal trader about 13 percentage points of payout probability, because the accounts that die usually die early. Stronger profiles barely notice: the consistent archetype collects 96.4% of the time here.
What the simulation does not capture
Three items are flagged rather than modeled: the advertised 15% profit share on challenge-phase profits, the split scaling toward 90–95% via add-ons, and any add-on that shortens the first payout cycle. The list price is recorded as $549 and the fee refunds on passing. Rules and pricing change without notice. FundedNext’s product page and help center are authoritative, and this entry was last checked against them on 2026-01-15. Every simulated number on this page carries its assumptions and seed; nothing here is a projection of your results.
Where these rules come from
Simulated from the open-source rules dataset entry fundednext/100k-stellar-2step (last verified 2026-01-15, against the firm’s published terms and cited sources), simulated with the open-source engine at github.com/LuxAlgo/prop-firm-sim. Rules change; FundedNext’s own page is authoritative. Every number above is a seeded Monte Carlo estimate: re-run the same inputs and you get the same digits.
These are reference profiles. You are not one.
Open this exact challenge in the simulator (it restores the encoded rules at seed 42 and runs), then swap in your own win rate, R-multiples, and risk.
Frequent questions.
It depends on the trader, so we publish distributions instead of a single number: at seed 42 with 10,000 Monte Carlo paths, a 45% win-rate 1.4R trader risking 1% passes 49.7% of attempts, a 48% win-rate 1.6R trader risking 0.75% passes 95.1%, and a 52% win-rate 1.8R trader risking 0.5% passes essentially always. Run your own statistics through the on-page simulator for a number that is about you rather than an average.