CFD · open dataset · verified 2026-01-15
FundingPips 2-Step Standard 100K pass rate: simulated odds
10,000 Monte Carlo paths per profile at seed 42, on the challenge’s exact published rules. Distributions under stated assumptions, never promises.
Developing trader
45% win rate, 1.4R average winner, 4 trades/day, risking 1% per trade
55.0%
pass per attempt · 95% CI 54.3%–55.7%
Consistent trader
48% win rate, 1.6R average winner, 4 trades/day, risking 0.75% per trade
95.3%
pass per attempt · 95% CI 94.9%–95.7%
Proven edge
52% win rate, 1.8R average winner, 3 trades/day, risking 0.5% per trade
100.0%
pass per attempt · 95% CI 99.9%–100.0%
Seed 42 · 10,000 paths per profile · engine v1.1.2. EV is net of every fee across a full journey (attempts, resets, activation, then 90 funded trading days of gated payouts); payout probability is the chance a funded account collects at least once. Assumptions and unsimulated rules: daily-anchor-max-balance-equity, split-varies-by-payout-cadence, trades-resolve-same-day, intra-trade-excursions-not-modeled, post-target-min-days-risk-free, attempts-iid, funded-withdrawal-model, calendar-days-approximated, trading-constraints-not-simulated. Details reproduce in the simulator run.
Precomputed odds
Not a ranking: simulated odds for three reference profiles.| Challenge | Developing trader | Consistent trader | Proven edge | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass % | EV | Payout | Pass % | EV | Payout | Pass % | EV | Payout | |
FundingPips · 2-Step Standard 100K CFD | 55.0% | +$14,293 | 74.2% | 95.3% | +$50,006 | 98.0% | 100.0% | +$48,911 | 100.0% |
Seed 42 · 10,000 paths per cell · engine v1.1.2. Deterministic Monte Carlo: same seed, same numbers. Pass % is per attempt, with its 95% CI on hover; EV is net of every fee. Assumptions and unsimulated rules are listed in each challenge’s simulator view.
What the numbers say
Simulated at seed 42, 10,000 paths per archetype: reproduce every number in the simulator on this page. The developing trader (45% win rate, 1.4R average winner, four trades a day at 1% risk) passes 55.0% of attempts (CI 54.3–55.7%), the joint-best marginal-profile pass rate among the CFD two-steps in this dataset, tied with Alpha Capital’s Pro variant, mostly because an 8% first target under a 5%-scale daily line is the mildest combination these programs offer. Expected value for that profile is +$14,293 over the full journey (1.82 attempts average, $726 expected fees, 90 funded trading days at the encoded 80% biweekly split). The consistent trader (48%, 1.6R, 0.75% risk) passes 95.3% with +$50,006 EV; the proven-edge trader (52%, 1.8R, 0.5% risk) failed once in 10,001 attempts.
After funding, 74.2% of the developing profile’s accounts collected at least one payout within 90 trading days while 87.6% eventually breached: collect-then-blow is the modal marginal outcome under our withdrawal policy (maximum allowed per cycle, flagged as an assumption). The consistent profile flips it: 98.0% collected, 16.1% breached. These are Monte Carlo distributions under stated assumptions and an encoded baseline split, not forecasts; if the firm’s current reward matrix differs from the 80% biweekly baseline, rerun the simulator with your cadence before trusting the EV.
The rules, worked through
An anchor-based daily loss: 5% of the day you are having, not of day one
Most CFD two-steps fix the daily allowance at 5% of the initial balance forever. FundingPips recomputes it at each daily reset: 5% of the higher of your day-start balance or equity (the max-of-both subtlety is flagged in the dataset; we encode the anchor as the prior day’s level). Worked example at this account size: close a day at $102,000 and tomorrow’s floor is $96,900 ($102,000 minus $5,100), where a fixed-allowance firm would put it at $97,000. Close at $96,000 after a rough stretch and the allowance shrinks to $4,800, floor $91,200, converging toward the static $90,000 maximum floor beneath it. Same 5% headline as everyone else; different geometry when it matters.
The 10% maximum loss is static, and it shares the work with the daily line
The overall floor is fixed at $90,000 from the initial balance, so profits bank as cushion. Because the daily allowance scales down as the account draws down, the two rules meet faster here than at fixed-allowance firms: in the 10,000-path developing run, failures split nearly evenly (55.7% daily, 44.3% max loss), where FTMO-style rules push two thirds of failures onto the daily line. Per phase, that profile passed the 8% step 71.2% of the time and the 5% step 77.3% of the time, for 55.0% per attempt overall.
Payout cadence sets your split: we encode the biweekly baseline
The reward model varies with the payout cycle you choose: the dataset records approximate tiers of 60% weekly, 80% biweekly, 90% monthly, on-demand around 90% with consistency conditions, and milestone tiers reaching 100%. All flagged, with the biweekly 80% encoded as the simulation baseline. Every funded-stage number on this page assumes that baseline. If you intend to withdraw weekly at a lower split or monthly at a higher one, your expected value shifts accordingly, and the simulator lets you test the difference. Verify the current reward matrix on FundingPips’ site; this entry was last checked 2026-01-15.
Verification status and what is not modeled
The $399 list price is recorded from pre-2026 knowledge and needs verification. A separate 2-Step Pro variant with different targets and limits also exists, so make sure you are pricing the Standard. The fee does not refund on passing: expect it once per attempt (developing profile: 1.82 attempts, $726 expected cost). The max(balance, equity) daily anchor and the cadence-dependent split are flagged rather than fully modeled. Rules change without notice; the firm’s help center is authoritative over anything written here.
Where these rules come from
Simulated from the open-source rules dataset entry fundingpips/100k-2step-standard (last verified 2026-01-15, against the firm’s published terms and cited sources), simulated with the open-source engine at github.com/LuxAlgo/prop-firm-sim. Rules change; FundingPips’s own page is authoritative. Every number above is a seeded Monte Carlo estimate: re-run the same inputs and you get the same digits.
These are reference profiles. You are not one.
Open this exact challenge in the simulator (it restores the encoded rules at seed 42 and runs), then swap in your own win rate, R-multiples, and risk.
Frequent questions.
It depends on your statistics, so we publish per-profile distributions: seed 42, 10,000 paths gives 55.0% per attempt for a 45% win-rate 1.4R trader risking 1%, 95.3% for a 48% win-rate 1.6R trader risking 0.75%, and effectively 100% for a 52% win-rate 1.8R trader risking 0.5%. The on-page simulator will run your own numbers under the same encoded rules.