Auction Failure

Auction Failure runs auction failure detection as a state machine across up to eight reference sides: prior session extremes, initial balance extremes, rolling range boundaries and prior value area edges. A probe beyond any of them is tracked until it builds acceptance — six held closes by default — or returns back inside, confirming the failure.

Failures are classified by volume traded beyond the level: an average bar's worth or more is a rejection (faded aggressively), less an abandonment (no interest). The failed excursion is shaded, with dotted rotation targets at the range's mid and opposite extreme.

How to Trade the Auction Failure?

• AF label: failure above a reference is bearish, below bullish; the tooltip carries type and probe stats.
• Rejection over abandonment: the stronger form — size was absorbed and beaten back.
• Rotation targets: the mid as interim objective, the opposite extreme as the full rotation.
• ACC markers: acceptance — expansion found follow-through, so no failure trade exists.

Auction Failure Settings

• Acceptance: Bars Held Beyond (default 6): held closes after which a probe cannot fail.
• Failure Confirmation: Closes Back Inside (default 1): closes back inside that confirm it.
• Minimum Penetration (xATR) (default 0): ignores pokes below this ATR multiple.
• Rejection Volume Threshold (default 1) and Average Volume Length (default 20): the rejection/abandonment split.
• Prior Session High/Low (default on): intraday charts only.
• Initial Balance Extremes (default on) with Initial Balance Length (Minutes) (default 60).
• Rolling Range Extremes (default on) with Range Length (Bars) (default 50): the only family on daily and higher charts.
• Prior Session Value Area (default off) with Value Area Profile Rows (default 24) and Value Area Volume % (default 70).
• Style toggles cover levels, probe zones, rotation targets (Target Extension (Bars), default 30) and acceptance markers.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does this differ from the 80% Rule build?

The 80% Rule build trades one scripted rotation from the open through the prior value area. This tool generalizes the acceptance-versus-return test to any reference at any hour.

Which references work on a daily chart?

Only the rolling range extremes. The session-scoped families need intraday data; a chart notice says so when they are enabled there.

Why did a probe get no failure label when it returned?

Either it held beyond the reference long enough to build acceptance — after which a return no longer counts — or it never cleared the Minimum Penetration (xATR) filter, so no probe was tracked.