Long-horizon Calendar Cycles

Long-horizon Calendar Cycles puts long-horizon calendar cycles on a statistical footing. Completed calendar years are bucketed by presidential-term position, the year's final digit, the Benner schedule's high/low/panic classes, or a custom fixed-year count, and the pane plots the current bucket's historical mean return as a stepped tilt line with each finished year's actual return dotted beside it. The dot scatter around the tilt shows how loose these tendencies run.

How to Trade the Long-horizon Calendar Cycles?

• Positive tilt at a year boundary: the year just begun belongs to a bucket with a positive historical mean - a calendar tilt to weigh alongside trend and breadth, never a standalone trigger.
• Benner year lines: in Benner Schedule mode, dotted verticals mark scheduled high, low and panic years - watch windows, not dates to trade blind.
• Dimmed cycle-map rows: buckets with fewer completed years than the warning threshold rest on a handful of observations - background context only.

Every statistic is walk-forward - the year in progress is never included - and the footer states where now sits, with the year-to-date return beside it.

Long-horizon Calendar Cycles Settings

• Cycle Model (default Presidential (4-Year)): the cycle years are bucketed by.
• Custom Cycle Length (years) (default 9) and Custom Anchor Year (default 2009): the Custom Fixed-Year mode; ignored by the other models.
• Sample From Year (default 1800): raise it to test whether a tendency survives in the modern sample.
• Benner Year Lines On Chart (default on) and Project Ahead (years) (default 12): Benner Schedule mode only.
• Show Cycle Map (default on) with Small-Sample Warning (n below) (default 10): per-bucket n, mean, median and win rate.
• Yearly Return Dots and Current Position Label (both default on): style toggles.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does this differ from seasonality studies?

Is a Benner panic year a sell signal?

Why does it require a daily or higher timeframe?