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Machine Learning: Anchored Gaussian Process Regression

By LuxAlgoNov 2, 2023

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Machine Learning: Anchored Gaussian Process Regression hands you control of the training set: place two anchors on the chart and the model fits a kernel-based regression to the price data between them, drawing the fit as a blue line and extending a red forecast beyond it. Anchoring makes experimentation honest: you can see exactly which regime the estimate learned from and how each setting reshapes the projection.

A faint silver line marks the mean average price inside the Training Window, a simple benchmark for judging how far the forecast deviates from the window's average.

How to Trade the Machine Learning: Anchored Gaussian Process Regression?

  • Blue line: the model's fit across the window defined by Anchor 1 and Anchor 2.
  • Red line: the forward projection computed from that window, a trend scenario, never a standalone entry trigger.
  • Forecast versus mean line: comparing the two shows at a glance how far the projection strays from the window's average price.
  • Regime testing: re-anchor across different market phases to compare how your Smooth and Sigma choices hold up.

The Training Window has an internal size cap: anchors set too far apart draw up to the limit and stop, with the red forecast taking priority. Anchor order does not matter: placing Anchor 2 before Anchor 1 works fine.

Machine Learning: Anchored Gaussian Process Regression Settings

  • Anchor 1 / Anchor 2: the start and end points of the Training Window.
  • Forecasting Length: how many bars ahead the forecast extends.
  • Smooth: higher values produce smoother, longer-term trend estimates.
  • Sigma: controls noise variance; values near zero increase sensitivity and amplify the forecast.

Frequently Asked Questions

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