Bitcoin Expectile Model
By LuxAlgoAug 13, 2025
Bitcoin Expectile Model is an indicator on Vela, our next-generation charting platform, written in Pine Script®.
The Bitcoin Expectile Model maps Bitcoin's long-run trajectory with seven expectile log-log regressions, a squared-error cousin of quantile regression that is cheaper to fit at many levels at once. Low tau values hug historical lows and accumulation territory; high taus track the highs where corrections have started. Inspired by PlanC's Bitcoin Quantile Model, it is built for the Bitcoin all-time-history index on 3-day or weekly log-scale charts, though assets with a long upward bias can be fitted on daily or higher timeframes.
How to Trade the Bitcoin Expectile Model?
- Green zone: the long-term buy and accumulation area defined by the lower expectile fits.
- Purple zone: rare overshoot bottoms, historically anomalous value below even the accumulation fits.
- Red zone: the distribution area where prior cycles saw sustained selling.
- Forward paths: fits extrapolate to your Forecast End date, sketching potential long-term corridors.
Treat it as a slow variable, like any crypto cycle model: context for accumulation and distribution decisions, not a signal generator. On other assets, a linear scale and a later Start Date can repurpose the fits as shorter-term support and resistance mapping.
Bitcoin Expectile Model Settings
- Start Date (default 2010-07-16): where the fit begins, matching common Bitcoin model conventions.
- Correct for Genesis Block: offsets the X-axis for the missing bars before recorded price history.
- Expectiles: enable individual fits and set each tau to sit nearer the highs or the lows.
- Forecast End: the date at which extrapolated projections stop.
- Iterations Number: precision versus speed. More iterations sharpen the fit but compute longer.
Frequently Asked Questions
Free to use
Run it on Vela. Go further with a paid plan.
- Up to 500 strategy alerts, with webhook automation
- Up to 10× the chart history of Free
- Orderflow lookback up to full history
- More Quant usage to customize it, plus extra usage when you need it
- Futures data alongside crypto, stocks, forex and commodities
Also works on
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