January Effect

January Effect measures the January seasonal on the actual chart instead of asserting it, bringing the January effect into the library as its first dedicated study. A dashboard reports three sections from completed months: the effect itself (average January versus the other months, their difference the January premium), the January barometer (hit rate against an always-up baseline), and the current year's status. January windows shade by their running direction, and each completed January is labeled with its return and barometer outcome.

How to Trade the January Effect?

• January premium row: the average January return minus the average other-month return on this symbol — positive means January has actually been the stronger month in the sample shown.
• Barometer call: January's direction calls the February-December window by default; only the edge over the always-up baseline is information — the dashboard prints both.
• Relative mode: run a small-cap index over a large-cap benchmark to study the size spread where the anomaly was originally documented.
• Calendar alerts: January opening, closing higher or lower, and the completed year grading the barometer call as hit or missed.

January Effect Settings

• Measure Relative To Benchmark (default disabled) with a benchmark symbol (default SP:SPX): study the chart symbol divided by the benchmark instead of raw price.
• Barometer Target (default Rest of year (Feb-Dec)): the Full year option matches the almanac phrasing but contains January itself, which flatters the hit rate.
• Sample Window (Years) (default 0): 0 samples every completed year on the chart; a positive value grades only the most recent years.
• Highlight January and January Return Labels (default enabled).
• Dashboard (default enabled) with position (default Top Right) and Dashboard Size (default Small).

Frequently Asked Questions

How does it differ from the Turn-of-Month Effects study?

Different calendars. The Turn-of-Month Effects build examines the recurring days around every month boundary; this one isolates a single month's premium and adds the year-ahead barometer question on top.

What timeframe does it need?

Anything monthly or lower — quarterly and yearly bars cannot isolate January, and the dashboard says so. Daily charts give the cleanest boundaries.

Does the dashboard prove the effect exists?

No — it reports what the sampled chart did: counts, averages, positive shares and hit rates, with the always-up baseline shown so a mere tendency of years to finish higher earns the barometer no credit. Use the sample window to check whether the pattern held recently.