CFD · open dataset · verified 2026-01-15
FTMO FTMO Challenge 100K (2-step) pass rate: simulated odds
10,000 Monte Carlo paths per profile at seed 42, on the challenge’s exact published rules. Distributions under stated assumptions, never promises.
Developing trader
45% win rate, 1.4R average winner, 4 trades/day, risking 1% per trade
45.8%
pass per attempt · 95% CI 45.2%–46.5%
Consistent trader
48% win rate, 1.6R average winner, 4 trades/day, risking 0.75% per trade
94.9%
pass per attempt · 95% CI 94.5%–95.3%
Proven edge
52% win rate, 1.8R average winner, 3 trades/day, risking 0.5% per trade
100.0%
pass per attempt · 95% CI 99.9%–100.0%
Seed 42 · 10,000 paths per profile · engine v1.1.2. EV is net of every fee across a full journey (attempts, resets, activation, then 90 funded trading days of gated payouts); payout probability is the chance a funded account collects at least once. Assumptions and unsimulated rules: profit-split-scaling, fee-priced-in-eur, trades-resolve-same-day, intra-trade-excursions-not-modeled, daily-basis-equity-equals-balance, post-target-min-days-risk-free, attempts-iid, funded-withdrawal-model, calendar-days-approximated. Details reproduce in the simulator run.
Precomputed odds
Not a ranking: simulated odds for three reference profiles.| Challenge | Developing trader | Consistent trader | Proven edge | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass % | EV | Payout | Pass % | EV | Payout | Pass % | EV | Payout | |
FTMO · FTMO Challenge 100K (2-step) CFD | 45.8% | +$11,532 | 68.3% | 94.9% | +$49,620 | 97.5% | 100.0% | +$49,297 | 100.0% |
Seed 42 · 10,000 paths per cell · engine v1.1.2. Deterministic Monte Carlo: same seed, same numbers. Pass % is per attempt, with its 95% CI on hover; EV is net of every fee. Assumptions and unsimulated rules are listed in each challenge’s simulator view.
What the numbers say
Three reference traders, same rules, seed 42, 10,000 Monte Carlo paths each: reproduce every number in the simulator on this page. A developing trader (45% win rate, 1.4R average winner, four trades a day at 1% risk) passes 45.8% of attempts (95% CI 45.2–46.5%) and needs 2.18 attempts on average to get funded. A consistent trader (48%, 1.6R, 0.75% risk) passes 94.9%; a proven-edge trader (52%, 1.8R, three trades a day at 0.5% risk) passed 10,000 of 10,001 simulated attempts. The gap between the first two profiles is mostly one rule: at 1% risk the $5,000 daily line sits five losing trades away, and 66.9% of the developing profile’s failures are daily-loss breaches.
Passing is half the story. Over a 90-trading-day funded horizon with withdrawals taken at the maximum each biweekly cycle allows (a stated modeling assumption, flagged in every result), 68.3% of the developing profile’s funded accounts collected at least one payout while 93.3% eventually breached the funded loss rules; expected value across the whole journey (every fee, every reset, every payout, 80% split) came to +$11,532. The consistent profile’s numbers: 97.5% payout probability, 18.4% blown, +$49,620 expected value. These are distributions under stated assumptions, not promises; the marginal trader’s outcome at FTMO is a coin flip per attempt that the refundable fee makes cheaper to repeat.
The rules, worked through
The 10% maximum loss is static: profits build real cushion
FTMO’s overall loss floor is fixed at $90,000 from day one and never moves. That single word "static" is worth percentage points of pass probability: once you are up $4,000, you can give back $14,000 before the account fails, because gains stack on top of the original allowance. Trailing-drawdown firms take that property away: their floor follows your high-water mark, so profit never adds net room. Of the two FTMO loss lines, this is the forgiving one: in our 10,000-path run of the developing profile, only about a third of failed attempts died at the $90,000 floor. The other two thirds never got that far.
The daily loss line: $5,000, anchored at the day start, floating counts
The Maximum Daily Loss is 5% of the initial balance: a fixed $5,000, not 5% of whatever your balance has become. Each day it re-anchors: start the day at $102,300 in equity and your line for that day sits at $97,300. It is evaluated continuously and includes open positions, so a trade floating $5,100 against you breaches the account even if it would have recovered by the close. The practical arithmetic for a 1%-risk, four-trades-a-day profile: five losing R in one day is termination, and a normal four-loss day leaves exactly $1,000 of room. This is the binding constraint of the FTMO Challenge in our simulations: 66.9% of the developing archetype’s failed attempts end here, roughly double what the static maximum loss claims.
Phase economics: the 10% target is the tall half
Both phases run the same loss rules; only the target changes. Simulated per-phase pass rates for the developing profile: 60.7% for the 10% Challenge phase, 75.5% for the 5% Verification. The first phase is where attempts go to die, because reaching 10% under a $5,000 daily cap simply requires more days of exposure. The fee is refundable on passing, which changes the cost math more than it first appears: the developing profile’s expected total outlay across retries is $638, while the consistent profile’s is $29 (near zero, because it usually passes first try and the 540 fee comes back with the first profit split).
What we verified, and what we did not
This entry was last verified against FTMO’s published objectives on 2026-01-15. Two things the simulation does not model: the profit-split scaling from 80% toward 90%, and the fact that the fee is list-priced in euros (the dataset records 540, so dollar cost figures are approximate). Firms change rules without notice. FTMO’s own trading-objectives page is the authority, and if it disagrees with anything here, it wins.
Where these rules come from
Simulated from the open-source rules dataset entry ftmo/100k-2step (last verified 2026-01-15, against the firm’s published terms and cited sources), simulated with the open-source engine at github.com/LuxAlgo/prop-firm-sim. Rules change; FTMO’s own page is authoritative. Every number above is a seeded Monte Carlo estimate: re-run the same inputs and you get the same digits.
These are reference profiles. You are not one.
Open this exact challenge in the simulator (it restores the encoded rules at seed 42 and runs), then swap in your own win rate, R-multiples, and risk.
Frequent questions.
There is no single pass rate: it depends entirely on the trader’s statistics. Our Monte Carlo runs (seed 42, 10,000 paths per profile) put a 45% win-rate, 1.4R trader risking 1% at 45.8% per attempt, a 48% win-rate trader risking 0.75% at 94.9%, and a 52% win-rate trader risking 0.5% at essentially 100%. Plug your own numbers into the simulator on this page to see where you land.