CFD · open dataset · verified 2026-01-15
The5ers High Stakes 100K (2-step) pass rate: simulated odds
10,000 Monte Carlo paths per profile at seed 42, on the challenge’s exact published rules. Distributions under stated assumptions, never promises.
Developing trader
45% win rate, 1.4R average winner, 4 trades/day, risking 1% per trade
49.7%
pass per attempt · 95% CI 49.0%–50.4%
Consistent trader
48% win rate, 1.6R average winner, 4 trades/day, risking 0.75% per trade
95.1%
pass per attempt · 95% CI 94.7%–95.5%
Proven edge
52% win rate, 1.8R average winner, 3 trades/day, risking 0.5% per trade
100.0%
pass per attempt · 95% CI 99.9%–100.0%
Seed 42 · 10,000 paths per profile · engine v1.1.2. EV is net of every fee across a full journey (attempts, resets, activation, then 90 funded trading days of gated payouts); payout probability is the chance a funded account collects at least once. Assumptions and unsimulated rules: min-profitable-days-3, profit-split-scaling, scaling-plan, trades-resolve-same-day, intra-trade-excursions-not-modeled, daily-basis-equity-equals-balance, post-target-min-days-risk-free, attempts-iid, funded-withdrawal-model, calendar-days-approximated, trading-constraints-not-simulated. Details reproduce in the simulator run.
Precomputed odds
Not a ranking: simulated odds for three reference profiles.| Challenge | Developing trader | Consistent trader | Proven edge | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass % | EV | Payout | Pass % | EV | Payout | Pass % | EV | Payout | |
The5ers · High Stakes 100K (2-step) CFD | 49.7% | +$11,183 | 68.6% | 95.1% | +$49,191 | 97.7% | 100.0% | +$48,815 | 100.0% |
Seed 42 · 10,000 paths per cell · engine v1.1.2. Deterministic Monte Carlo: same seed, same numbers. Pass % is per attempt, with its 95% CI on hover; EV is net of every fee. Assumptions and unsimulated rules are listed in each challenge’s simulator view.
What the numbers say
Simulated at seed 42, 10,000 paths per archetype: reproduce these numbers in the on-page simulator. The developing trader (45% win rate, 1.4R average winner, four trades a day at 1% risk) passes 49.7% of attempts (CI 49.0–50.4%), needs 2.01 attempts on average, and shows +$11,183 expected value across fees, retries, and a 90-trading-day funded horizon at an 80% split. The consistent trader (48%, 1.6R, 0.75% risk) passes 95.1% of attempts with +$49,191 EV. The proven-edge trader (52%, 1.8R, 0.5% risk) failed once in 10,001 attempts. Because the profitable-days requirement is only partially enforced by the engine, treat the marginal profile’s numbers as optimistic by some margin the data cannot pin down.
What the distribution actually says: this evaluation is a straightforward fixed-allowance two-step, easier than a 10%-target program and identical in simulation to FundedNext’s Stellar rules. The purchase decision therefore hinges on the parts outside the pass rate: a non-refundable fee that doubles the marginal trader’s expected cost, a faster first payout, and a growth plan we do not model. Distributions, not promises: 33.2% of the developing profile’s paths ended net-negative even with positive average EV.
The rules, worked through
Drawdown semantics: both lines are measured from the starting balance
The5ers defines the 10% maximum loss and the 5% daily loss against the account’s starting balance, which is the most forgiving arrangement a challenge can have. The overall floor sits at $90,000 forever (reach $105,000 and you have $15,000 of room), and the daily allowance is always $5,000, anchored to each day’s starting level and checked in real time with floating positions included. The daily line is what binds in practice: at 1% risk per trade it is five losing R away, and in the 10,000-path run of the developing archetype 64.4% of failed attempts ended there, versus 35.6% at the static floor. Phase pass rates for that profile: 66.5% on the 8% step, 74.7% on the 5% step.
The three-profitable-days rule: flagged, not fully simulated
A minimum trading day at The5ers is not just a day with a trade: each phase requires at least three days whose closed profit is 0.5% of the starting balance or more ($500 on this account), computed as min(midnight balance, midnight equity) minus the previous day’s balance. The engine enforces three trading days but not the profit quality of those days, and flags the gap in every result (min-profitable-days-3). Directionally that means the simulated pass rates on this page are an upper bound on this axis: a trader who reaches 8% in one or two large days still has to manufacture qualifying $500+ days afterward, spending extra time at risk that the simulation does not charge for.
Fee economics without a refund
The recorded list price is $495 (some 2026 sources cite slightly lower: verify current pricing on the firm’s site) and it does not refund on passing. That changes nothing about the odds and everything about the cost distribution: the developing profile averages 2.01 attempts, so its expected total cost is $997, while the consistent profile’s is $520 and even the strongest archetype pays the full $495. Programs with near-identical rules and refundable fees (FundedNext’s Stellar 2-Step, as we encode it) end up costing a passing trader close to zero. Against that, The5ers pays out on a 14-day first cycle rather than 21.
Funded stage and the growth plan
The funded account pays 80% on a roughly biweekly cycle with the first payout around 14 days after the first funded trade, as verified 2026-01-15. Simulated over 90 funded trading days with maximum withdrawals (a flagged modeling policy): 68.6% of the developing profile’s funded accounts collected at least one payout and 93.3% eventually breached; the consistent profile collected 97.7% of the time and breached 18.4%. The published growth plan (split rising toward 100% and account doubling at 10% profit milestones up to $4M) is flagged, not simulated, so long-horizon upside is understated for traders who survive. Rules change; The5ers’ own program pages are authoritative.
Where these rules come from
Simulated from the open-source rules dataset entry the5ers/100k-high-stakes (last verified 2026-01-15, against the firm’s published terms and cited sources), simulated with the open-source engine at github.com/LuxAlgo/prop-firm-sim. Rules change; The5ers’s own page is authoritative. Every number above is a seeded Monte Carlo estimate: re-run the same inputs and you get the same digits.
These are reference profiles. You are not one.
Open this exact challenge in the simulator (it restores the encoded rules at seed 42 and runs), then swap in your own win rate, R-multiples, and risk.
Frequent questions.
There is no single pass rate; it is a function of your statistics. Our Monte Carlo runs (seed 42, 10,000 paths) put a 45% win-rate 1.4R trader at 1% risk at 49.7% per attempt, a 48% win-rate 1.6R trader at 0.75% risk at 95.1%, and a 52% win-rate 1.8R trader at 0.5% risk at effectively 100%, before accounting for the three-profitable-days rule, which the engine flags but does not fully enforce, and which only lowers these numbers.