Adaptive Harmonic Forecast

Adaptive Harmonic Forecast models price as rhythm plus drift. It detrends the lookback window, scans candidate periods with spectral analysis to find the cycles carrying meaningful power, then fits sines, cosines, and a first-order trend to the data with ordinary least squares. The composite plots as a solid line over history (showing how well the model explains what already happened) and extends forward as a dotted projection, green while the projected path rises, red while it falls.

How to Trade the Adaptive Harmonic Forecast?

• Alignment: when live price agrees with the projected direction, treat it as confirmation for trend-continuation entries.
• Reversal dots: optional markers at forecast peaks and troughs give timing windows for pullbacks, or larger turns when they land on structural levels.
• Trend line: the linear-regression component separates the structural slope from the cycles riding on it, keeping directional bias visible.
• Cycle table: the Detected Cycles dashboard lists the dominant cycle periods in bars. Short periods flag a noisy, mean-reverting state; long ones a smoother structural regime.

Read the projection as directional rhythm and timing, not tick-level targets. It reflects the structure currently in the data.

Adaptive Harmonic Forecast Settings

• Fit Lookback (N): bars used for cycle detection and fitting. Larger captures broader structure, smaller reacts faster.
• Extrapolation Bars: how far forward the dotted forecast extends.
• Number of Sinusoids (1-10): model complexity; more waves capture more structure at the cost of sensitivity.
• Min Period: floor on detected cycle length, filtering the shortest noise cycles.
• Show Reversal Dots / Show Trend Line / Show Detected Periods: toggle the markers, bias line, and cycle dashboard.

Frequently Asked Questions

Does the forecast repaint?

Can it drive a systematic strategy?

How do I access the Adaptive Harmonic Forecast?